Also this speech again failed to offer a robust defense of the main items of the first term, like health care and stimulus. There was a vague reference about doing unpopular things at the end, but he should have laid out why he did it and what the long-term benefits are.

I fear people will come away feeling they’ve heard this all before and it did not work for them.

A few potentially big positives however:
-positive tone. The most optimistic candidate usually wins, and based on this speech and convention Obama certainly maintains that mantle. This kind of speech still makes you feel good and that cannot be underestimated.
-in not mentioning Romney very much he kind of marginalized him and made it seem he’s irrelevant.
-the appeals to not letting money decide this election were well pitched and seemed to energize the crowd.
-note of humility at the end engaged the crowd.

I suspect this will not move many undecideds, and the race remains pretty much tied going into the debates.

Arnold Vis

A few thoughts on the most effective Clinton lines:
1) Romney’s welfare attacks ad have now so thoroughly been debunked I cannot see him using them anymore, and if he does it might become a liability in their own right as the media will focus on their inaccuracy even more. All this should help Obama with the white working class.

2) Paul Ryan was put on notice over Medicare and will have to think twice about making these kinds of claims again. Clinton’s attack was so memorable that the media will pull him up on it if he does.
3) Clinton saying no one (including him) could have managed a full recovery after just 4 years is simple to understand and will matter.

One thing I did notice tough was the tonal difference there is between Obama and Clinton, and that Clinton seems to talk in a way that’s more centrist. One small example was this passage:

“We know that investments in education and infrastructure and scientific and technological research increase growth. They increase good jobs, and they create new wealth for all the rest of us.”

Same policy, but a different rationale, and one that explicitly embraces wealth creation as a goal. Obama would do well to incorporate more of this type of talk in his message, as it sounds more forward looking and friendly to business.

Looking forward to Obama’s speech tonight, I think he needs to do a few things:
-talk about what he’s learned in his first term and how it may inform his decisions going forward
-present a concrete path forward and debt and deficits and talk on some details about compromises he’s willing to make

He’ll need to illustrate that a second term would be different than the first, and reclaim teh “reasonable adult” mantle. If he manages that and brings over some swing voters, things are looking good for him after the lackluster RNC.

Arnold Vis